17 November 2021

Today’s CPI figures increases the chance of a December rate rise

2 min read

Melanie Baker
Melanie Baker

Senior Economist

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Commenting on this morning’s CPI inflation figures, Melanie Baker, senior economist at Royal London Asset Management said: 

"Today’s consumer price index inflation (CPI) figures are clearly a long way above the Bank of England’s 2% CPI target. The main driver of the jump in CPI inflation, as expected, came from energy prices and there will also have been an impact from the start of the phasing out of last year’s VAT cut on hospitality. Inflation driven by these things can largely be described as transitory.'

"Given that the Bank of England were expecting a 3.9%Y number for this release, it is worth bearing in mind that a big jump in inflation in itself won’t have come as a surprise for them.  What will be important for the Bank is a broadening out of inflation pressure beyond things easily labelled as transitory. Given the scale of the surprise in these numbers and the jump in core inflation, that will apply to some of the rise in inflation today. There were downward contributions to inflation in October from a few of the main components, but these were relatively small. 

"In isolation, today’s upside surprise increases the chance of a December rate rise, but there are several key data releases to go before then, including another set of business surveys and labour market data."

 

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About Royal London Asset Management (RLAM):

Established in 1988, Royal London Asset Management (RLAM) is one of the UK's leading fund management companies, providing investment management solutions to both wholesale and institutional clients such as not-for-profit organisations, local authorities and the insurance sector.

RLAM manages £153 billion of assets and employs 126 investment professionals as at 30 June 2021. It invests in all major asset classes including UK and overseas equities, government bonds, investment grade and high yield corporate bonds, property and cash.

For professional clients only, not suitable for retail investors.

Issued by Royal London Asset Management Limited, registered in England and Wales number 2244297; authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered Office: 55 Gracechurch Street, London, EC3V 0RL.

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