Your Q1 2019 outlook
See how a turbulent few years could have impacted your investments in Q1 2019
CAPTION: It's been a turbulent few years across the world with rising interest rates causing volatility in stock markets and a slowdown in the global economy...but how will this impact your investments over the coming months?
TREVOR GREETHAM: My name is Trevor Greetham and I’m Head of Multi Asset at Royal London and I’ll be speaking to you about the outlook of the world economy over the next three months and how we think that's going to impact on member's portfolios.
The world economy is slowing down after a couple of years in which interest rates have been rising and that is introducing some volatility into stock markets. We think in the short term markets have become too worried about a US recession. No one has told the US consumer there is a recession, retail sales are still quite strong, gasoline prices have been dropping and that helps spending and in China there is extra stimulus being added to the economy. So while things are slowing down in the short term, we favour stock markets and member portfolios are tilted modestly in that direction.
Brexit is of course another risk. We don't know which way that is going to turn out. The pound could go up a lot if we end up in a relationship very close to or in the European Union. The pound could actually go down quite a lot if we were to leave the European union with no transition deal and as a result we think diversification, spreading your investments across a range of different asset classes makes a lot of sense this year.
A lot of the assets and member portfolios are in sterling in the first place so you don't have to care too much about which way foreign currencies move. We've also got a balance between investments which would do well in one scenario or another.
So summing up we are relatively positive at the moment because people perhaps panicked too much about a recession in America but as the year progresses we think it is going to be more sensible to become a little more cautious and it's the year in which spreading investments across a range of different asset classes makes a lot of sense to us especially with Brexit risks still up in the air.
CAPTION: If you're unsure about your pension or investments, an impartial financial adviser can provide guidance based on your requirements.
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