UK GDP: Strong May, but still on recession watch

Published  13 July 2022
   2 min read

Melanie Baker, senior economist at Royal London Asset Management comments on this morning’s (13 July) UK GDP data.

“Despite today’s stronger than expected figures, the UK economy remains at risk of recession. I expect at least one quarter of negative GDP growth this year though, after this May data print, but the likelihood of that quarter being Q2 has slipped. 

“Pay growth is not keeping up with inflation, consumer confidence is weak, business optimism is falling and the Bank of England continues to hike rates - and I am expecting at least another 75bp of rate hikes by year end. Energy prices remain an issue and a further large energy bill increase looks set for households in October, though the impact was eased somewhat by previously announced fiscal measures.”


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About Royal London Asset Management (RLAM):

Established in 1988, Royal London Asset Management (RLAM) is one of the UK's leading fund management companies, providing investment management solutions to both wholesale and institutional clients such as not-for-profit organisations, local authorities and the insurance sector.

RLAM manages £164 billion of assets and employs 129 investment professionals as at 31 December 2021. It invests in all major asset classes including UK and overseas equities, government bonds, investment grade and high yield corporate bonds, property and cash.

For professional clients only, not suitable for retail investors.

Issued by Royal London Asset Management Limited, registered in England and Wales number 2244297; authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered Office: 55 Gracechurch Street, London, EC3V 0RL.

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