UK GDP: Still Sluggish
Commenting on this morning’s UK GDP data Melanie Baker, senior economist at Royal London Asset Management, said:
"This is still a prolonged stretch of sluggishness for activity growth in the UK. GDP rose just 0.1% in the three months to April and it is still the case that the level of UK GDP in real terms has barely grown at all since late 2021. Output is still only 0.3% above pre-pandemic levels.
"There is a good chance that the UK records a negative quarter of growth in Q2 given the pace of recent GDP growth and the chance of back revisions. Business surveys, however, namely the PMI surveys, look consistent with increases in private sector output in May at least.
"I still have a technical recession pencilled into my UK forecast, but there is a limited difference between a short modest technical recession and the kind of growth we’ve seen in the UK post-pandemic.
"Next week’s CPI figures and yesterday’s labour market statistics are going to be more important for Monetary Policy Committee decision-making at this point than today’s GDP figures, in my view. The Bank of England remain concerned about inflation and yesterday’s labour market report looked consistent with further rate hikes."
For further information please contact
Lena Nunkoo, PR Manager
- Email: lena.nunkoo@royallondon.com
- Tel: 02032 725 816
- Mob: 07919 171 919
About Royal London Asset Management:
Established in 1988, Royal London Asset Management is one of the UK's leading fund management companies, providing investment management solutions to both wholesale and institutional clients such as not-for-profit organisations, local authorities and the insurance sector.
Royal London Asset Management manages £162 billion of assets as at 31 December 2023. It invests in all major asset classes including UK and overseas equities, government bonds, investment grade and high yield corporate bonds, property and cash.
Issued by Royal London Asset Management Limited, registered in England and Wales number 2244297; authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered Office: 80 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 4BY.
Visit rlam.com to learn more.
For press releases about RLAM please click here.
